Racing Tips 1/2/24

Comments

6 responses to “Racing Tips 1/2/24”

1. 

   Chris Albin

   February 1, 2024

   I’m failing to understand how a horse tipped at 13/8 to win its first race and on heavy ground in a maiden hurdle is a value bet.

   Reply
   1. 

      mrfreaky

      February 1, 2024

      That’s fine. A lot of things went into it, it has ran at Ffos Las on heavy ground finishing 2nd to a horse by 1/4 length that went on to finish 2nd next time in a decent race. I didn’t like I See The Sea which was its main market rival until the late money for Willsburg who I underestimated because it hasn’t ran well in it’s last 3 races. It came 2nd and was beat by a horse that came back to form, it’s not crazy. Plus having a good 5lb claimer on board doesn’t hurt.

      Reply
      1. 

         Chris Albin

         February 2, 2024

         Thankyou for taking the time to give your reasoning. Maiden Hurdles on any ground at 13/8 are certainly not my cup of tea. As for your perceived lack of luck from the gods I think you answered that yourself on the Premium Tipping page by having a 5 week ROI of 49%…… good ol’ variance strikes again eh!
         From early Jan I see a profit of around -12 which isn’t the end of the world is it….I’ll keep tracking for now …. all the best….surely won’t be long till you get your nose in front again

         Reply
         1. 

            mrfreaky

            February 2, 2024

            No problem, I enjoy discussing horses. Yeah variance is real, but I don’t know how well everybody else understands it, it’s why when I was on the upswing I kept mentioning it. And as you can see I don’t take many horses at prices that short in any race. This time of year can also be a bit hit and miss as well, November through February is not the best time for racing for me. And thanks mate, just makes you work a little harder when you are not getting the luck.

            Reply
            1. 

               Chris Albin

               February 2, 2024

               So I guess you prefer flat racing?

            2. 

               mrfreaky

               February 2, 2024

               Probably but I do love jumps, but with jumps some weeks you have got to wait for Saturdays to get decent races. My ROI is basically the same for both codes, but I get about twice as much on during the flat season.